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The Arizona election test shows signs of a GOP backfire


Trump has hailed Maricopa County’s trial and continued to propose baseless conspiracy theories about electoral fraud when Republicans from other states he had lost made pilgrimages to Phoenix to review the idea of ​​exporting the concept. But Arizona Republicans, who are closely monitoring the state’s demographic change, say the test isn’t a political winner.

“It’s a failure. It’s a joke, “said Sean Noble, a leading GOP agent in the state, advising Republicans elsewhere to” avoid it. The choice is long over, time to look ahead. “

Noble said public opinion surrounding the exam is just too entrenched to change, even though the company that made the effort, Cyber ​​Ninjas, is still on the job. On Friday, Cyber ​​Ninjas announced that their team had completed the photograph and counting of Maricopa County’s 2.1 million ballot papers.

The final report is widely expected to make allegations of electoral fraud and reflect the policies of the founder of Cyber ​​Ninja – he appeared in a conspiracy theorist’s documentary full of falsehood, according to Arizona press reports.

49-46 percent of Arizona voters are against the test that the result is within the poll’s margin of error. However, the poll of 600 likely voters found that the intensity of opposition to the exam exceeded the intensity of approval, with those who strongly opposed it being 5 percentage points higher than those who strongly supported the exam. And while Democrats and Republicans broke familiar party lines, independent voters, by whom the state orientates itself in tight elections, rejected the test by 18 percentage points.

“As bloody red meat for MAGA’s Republican base, the trial is a manna from heaven, but the problem is that Arizona is no longer a red state. It’s a swing state, ”said Fernand Amandi, who conducted the survey. “The test may serve two interests: launching the MAGA base, but giving Democrats a chance to argue with Arizona voters that they are sticking with them.”

Bendixen & Amandi International typically conduct polls for Democrats and accurately forecast Trump’s difficulties in re-election in Arizona more than a year before the 2020 vote. A pre-election poll the company conducted in Florida also warned Democrats precisely that Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County were more leaning towards Trump than many expected.

Arizona Resistance to the test increased – 51 percent against and 44 percent in favor – when respondents were informed of the partisan nature of the effort: it was conducted by a company with no experience in the field, and electoral experts, Democratic officials, and Republican members of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors oppose the recount. These opponents have pointed out that the voting machines have already been checked by an accredited company and the election results have been confirmed by a previous check.

The new poll numbers are similar to a May poll by Arizona-based High Ground Inc., which tends to be polled among Republicans, that found 55 percent disapproved of the exam and 41 percent supported it. That poll also found that Arizona voters were 11 points less likely to endorse a candidate who endorsed the exam.

In Amandi’s poll, Biden’s favor rating is almost evenly divided, with 49 percent having a positive and 48 percent having a negative opinion. Trump is in the negative area, 46 percent have a positive and 51 percent have a negative opinion of him.

In a head-to-head rematch in Arizona, the poll shows, Biden beats Trump by 51-44 percent. The survey, which was conducted June 17-23, shows an error rate of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results don’t necessarily mean the Arizonans want Biden to run again. Just over five months into his first year in office, only 37 percent of Arizona voters polled said Biden deserves a second term, while 53 percent say he doesn’t. These numbers fuel: strong Republican opposition to the president, relatively tepid Democratic support, and double-digit opposition from independents.

“Paradoxically, if Biden is interested in running for re-election and winning the votes of the Electoral College in Arizona, he may want a rematch against Donald Trump,” said Amandi, who would not speculate on the causes of Biden’s poor re-election figures.

Noble, the Republican agent from Arizona, said he believes the 78-year-old president’s re-election numbers “are determined almost entirely by his age and cognitive skills. People are okay with him as president now, but they cannot imagine it in the future. “

The poll also assessed the popularity of the state’s Republican governor and his two Democratic senators.

Governor Doug Ducey is slightly under water, 47 percent have a positive impression and 49 percent have an unfavorable impression. Ducey, who denied Trump’s requests to overturn the November election results and kept himself as silent as he can about the exam, was rated positive by 72 percent of Republicans, compared with 25 percent who rated him negative. Among the independents, the governor was rated negative by 52 percent and positive by 43 percent. He is about to be re-elected next year.

The Democratic Senators, both elected in the Trump era, are doing better.

Senator Mark Kelly, who will be re-elected next year, is rated positive by 48 percent of voters and negative by 41 percent. His job approval rate is slightly better, with 51 percent agreeing and 35 percent disapproving.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema is rated positively by 50 percent and negative by 37 percent, essentially identical to her approval figures.

Sinema has become a magnet for progressive criticism for refusing to scrap the filibuster, which essentially requires 60 voters in the 100-member Senate to endorse most of the laws. The poll shows that 46 percent of Arizona voters are in favor and 36 percent are against.

When informed that Sinema’s support for the filibuster “could potentially mean that the political priorities of President Biden and the democratic leadership have no chance of becoming law and enforced,” 50 percent said they supported her decision and 39 percent were against it.

Sinema’s stance on filibuster and other issues has cost her Democratic voters – her disapproval is higher with Democrats than Republicans, and more Republicans are in favor of her job performance than Democrats.

Amandi, the pollster, said Sinema could be vulnerable to a major challenge in 2024, but her totals make her a formidable candidate for the general election. Amandi said there was a link between Sinema’s support and the rejection of the exam: the overall electorate is in the middle in Arizona.

“Sen. Sinema seems to understand the lesson Arizona voters are teaching about auditing: It is smarter political terrain to be in the center than in the partisan extremes in Arizona, ”Amandi said.

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